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It's never to early too start discussing fantasy football. In looking at quarterback performances from last year, one gets a fairly accurate and adequate picture of what is likely to happen in 2007. Very few rookies have come out and affected fantasy football in their first year, hence, they will be left out of the discussion. If after the April draft, some QBs look like they may have a fantasy impact, they will be discussed separately.
1. Peyton Manning- You need to start targeting Peyton in the top 25 picks or so. I usually have the first QB in the 17-22 range. Now that Addai has a year under his belt, hopefully he understands the protections, and Indy can get back to their high powered aerial attack. Addai's experience should allow Indy to be able to be more versatile. Peyton has finally learned that you need to run to put games away, and has been making the correct calls recently. Can't argue with consistent success.
2. Drew Brees- Coming off shoulder surgery at the end of 2005, Brees powered the Saints to the number one offense in the land. Is a repeat performance likely? Probably, but I would not draft him in the top 25 picks. Maybe in the 30s to 40s.
3. Donovan McNabb- If he comes full circle, he will be a force to be reckoned with. He led all QBs in the NFL until he was injured. Keep a close eye on preseason. He still managed to finish in the top 15 of all QBs, despite only playing 9 full games.
4. Carson Palmer- A year removed from his knee rehabilitation, he can get back into his 2005 form. Look for an outstanding year. Although the WR coach is now down in Atlanta, TJ and Chad should still put up big numbers. Look for this trio to continue to put up good fantasy numbers.
5. Marc Bulger- St. Louis has lost some offensive talent, but they plan to reload. They brought in Randy McMichael and plan to draft a few receivers. Look for Bulger to continue his offensive onslaught. He like what Linehan is doing and they should be more in sync. He finished the year as the number three QB overall, with 21 points per game average.
6. Michael Vick- He is the man. Schaub is gone, Patrino is in as the new head coach, and you now have Chad Johnson's former WR coach coaching up their first round WRs; Jenkins and White. Finneran should be back to add to Algae. Vick will put up numbers passing and running. He finished 6th overall last year, look for a similar performance. The only caveat is his inconsistency. He always manages to have a great first half of the season, going 5-2 to start the last two years, and then dropping off. Maybe you can trade him.
7. Tom Brady- He managed to finish 8th overall last year with, what some will call, mediocre WRs around him. They have brought in some serious brass to help him out and with Dillon gone, look for Brady to surpass his 2006 numbers and reproduce the 2005 performance. Some have him ranked higher, bu this is a decent spot for him.
8. Jon Kitna- Say what you will, he finished as the 7th overall QB last year. With another year under Martz's offense, and the defense figuring out Marinelli's Tampa Two, he should be more productive and possibly surpass the 2006 numbers. They have signed some of Martz's old WRs from St. Louis, so we will have to wait and see.
9. Philip Rivers- He finally showed us what he can do. He had a slow start, handing off to LT in the first few weeks, then let it fly. At one point they had won 3 games in a row when they were down by 14 points. He came back and finished as the 9th overall QB for 2006. He suffered from a little inconsistency, but this should be resolved now that he has a year under his belt. But he has an all new coaching staff, and although they promise "not to change anything", we will have to wait and see.
10. Brett Favre- Say what you will, GB has retooled, reloaded, and is ready to make a serious run. The Bears have made some extremely poor decisions and the NFC North is weak. Brett will have an impressive year. They will probably get him a TE or two to shore up the line and provide an extra WR against Tampa Two defenses (Lions, Bears, and the Vikes still).
Worth taking a look at:
11. Matt Hasselbeck- They resigned Engram, the only worthy WR on that team. Who knows what will happen to D Jax. Wait and see approach for Hasselbeck. Matt is always ranked in the top 5 of QBs by others, I don't think he is worth such a high ranking, but if he stays healthy, you never know.
12. Vince Young- What an amazing rookie season! Can only get better. They will need some new WRs to replace Bennett, but they should do well. He will still provide a lot of rushing points, so if your league scores rushing TDs differently than passing, look for him. He is still an enigma and may not be that consistent or dependable, try your luck.
12. Steve McNair- With Bellick calling the plays, they became more consistent on offense. The addition of McGahee only helps.
14. Chad Pennington- How can you argue with success? Needs another WR threat. Thomas Jones will provide a monster impetus for this team.
15. JP Losman- Last year, they finally gelled. He and Evans should have a great year. Hopefully, they will connect on two 83 yard TD passes every game.
16. Tony Romo- Sold yet? Stash him on your bench until he proves himself, but it may be soon.
17. Jay Cutler- Denver has done some serious shopping in the off season. A lot of toys for Cutler to play with. The new "Arm of the NFL" can now use his canon to find Javon, Rod, Scheffler, Graham, Stokely, Kirkus, Travis, and Marshall. Pretty damn scary.
18. Alex Smith- Their offense will suffer now without Turner, but they have made significant strides. Their defense should be able to keep them in games, and they can seriously challenge for their division.
19. Matt Lienert- A lot of offensive weapons, new coaching staff. Who knows what will happen.
20. Matt Schaub- Interesting to see if he can fix what Carr couldn't. He has a faster release and makes decisions much faster than Carr did, so he should do well in Houston. With Ahman and Andre, Schaub is expected to play fairly well. Let's see what they draft.
This year's QB pool seems a lot deeper. Last year, we saw three rookie QBs take over midway through the season, and hence the pool was not as deep. This year we may only see one or two rookie QBs get significant playing time.
For more player rankings: http://www.footballtimes.org/playersfantasyrank.asp